Tropical Storm Polo, which formed last Sunday in the Pacific Ocean, has rapidly strengthened into a Category 1 hurricane. According to the US National Hurricane Center (NHC), by Monday afternoon, Polo had reached winds of 80 mph (130 km/h) and is now moving toward rapid intensification. This storm will not directly impact the US, but its moisture and outer bands could cause life-threatening flooding along the western coast of Mexico and the US Southwest.
Where is Polo and how strong is it?
According to the NHC's report at 12 noon (1800 GMT) on Monday, Hurricane Polo's center was about 270 miles (435 kilometers) south-southeast of the Mexican port city of Manzanillo and 190 miles (305 kilometers) southwest of the tourist town of Zihuatanejo. The storm is currently moving eastward at a slow speed of 5 mph. Its maximum sustained winds are 80 mph. Mexico's National Meteorological Service has also confirmed this.
The most worrying aspect is its forecast track. Forecasters say that Polo will become a Major Hurricane, a Category 3 or higher, by Tuesday. Some models even predict that it could reach Category 4 (213-215 km/h) by Wednesday, and according to a report by Mexico News Daily, it could possibly reach Category 5. The good news is that its core center is expected to remain away from land, meaning a direct landfall is unlikely. However, this does not mean that the danger is less.
The NHC has clearly stated, "Although the storm's center is expected to remain away from the coast, it is too early to determine where and how much impact it will have. People living in Southwest Mexico should monitor its progress."
Which Mexican states are most at risk?
Polo will have the greatest impact on Mexico's Pacific Coast states. The NHC has issued a Tropical Storm Watch from Tecpan de Galeana (Guerrero) to Punta San Telmo (Michoacan).
Coastal areas of Guerrero and Michoacan states could receive 4 to 8 inches (10 to 20 cm) of rain by Thursday, with isolated totals reaching 12 inches (30 cm) in some places. According to Mexico's Weather Service, 75 to 150 mm of rain is expected in Oaxaca and Guerrero, 50 to 75 mm in Michoacan, and 25 to 50 mm in Jalisco and Colima. Private forecaster AccuWeather has warned that some areas could receive 100-200 mm of rain, and isolated totals of up to 300 mm.
This heavy rainfall poses a risk of catastrophic mudslides and flooding in rivers and streams in mountainous areas. Winds will be 10 to 20 km/h, but gusts can reach 30-50 km/h. Waves can reach 1 to 3 meters high, creating dangerous surf and rip currents.
Tourist hubs will also be affected. AccuWeather states that major tourist resorts like Acapulco, Puerto Vallarta, Guadalajara, and Southern Baja California Sur, including Los Cabos, will also experience strong winds and rough surf. Areas like Acapulco have already suffered from flooding in the past week, making the threat of Polo even greater. Travel alerts have been issued – roads, boat transfers, airport connections, and outdoor tours are likely to be delayed or canceled.
Why is Polo a flood threat in the US Southwest?
Polo will not make landfall directly in the US, but its tropical moisture is being drawn northward and supercharging the US monsoon. Just a week ago, flooding triggered by another tropical disturbance killed three people near Newcomb, New Mexico. Now, moisture from Polo is increasing the threat again in the same area.
Fox Weather and the National Weather Service in Albuquerque have warned that monsoon thunderstorms will hit New Mexico from Tuesday to Thursday. The Albuquerque NWS stated, "Widespread heavy rainfall will pose a risk of life-threatening flash flooding across the state."
A Level 3 out of 4 Flash Flood Threat has been issued for Tuesday in southern New Mexico, including Las Cruces. The Maricopa County Sheriff's Office rescued two motorists trapped in floodwaters in Goodyear by helicopter on September 16th.
AccuWeather has stated that moisture from the Polo will increase the risk of flash floods in Arizona and New Mexico starting Tuesday. El Niño is becoming exceptionally strong this year, with a nearly 100% chance of reaching Super El Niño status. Because of this, the Pacific Basin is already supercharged – with just two months left in the season, 18 named storms have already formed in the Central and Eastern Pacific.
What is Polo's future timeline?
Monday, Sept. 21: Becomes a Category 1 hurricane, with winds up to 80 mph, moving slowly east-northeast.
Tuesday, Sept. 22: Strengthens into a hurricane, with winds up to 148 km/h. The center will slow south of Mexico and begin to turn northwest.
Wednesday, Sept. 23: Rapid intensification - from Category 2 to Category 3 (200+ km/h). Track will turn northwest, paralleling the Mexican coast.
Thursday, Sept. 24: Forecast indicates a Category 4 (213-215 km/h). The center will remain offshore, but the risk of heavy rain and landslides remains.
Multiple systems active simultaneously
Polo isn't alone. Tropical Storm Odalys is also located in the Pacific, located at 13.5°N, 128.7°W, and could become a hurricane by midweek, although it is far from land. Apart from this, there is an 80% chance of formation of a new system from the remnants of Tropical Depression Fifteen-E in the East-Southeast of Hawaii, which can bring heavy rains to Big Island and Maui. There is also a 40% development chance of a Low Pressure in the South of Gulf of Tehuantepec.
At present, it is most important that the people of Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, Jalisco and Oaxaca in Mexico should follow the advice of Civil Protection, stay away from coastal areas and keep an eye on the official NHC Updates. At the same time, the people of New Mexico and Arizona should not take Flash Flood Warnings lightly. Even though the center of Polo remains in the sea, its Impact Map Center can be dangerous hundreds of kilometers away from the track.
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