The US is currently fighting two simultaneous battles: one against Iran on foreign soil and another at home against inflation. Oil has become the focal point of both conflicts.
In an interview with Fox News on Sunday, September 28, President Donald Trump made a significant statement that shook global markets. Speaking during the PGA Tour Presidents Cup, Trump asserted that the US is on the verge of winning the war against Iran and predicted that once the conflict ends, global oil prices will plummet.
Trump stated in his characteristic style, "I think what's going to happen is we're going to win this war very soon, and as soon as we win it, the oil will go down, way down to what it was before the war."
Why is oil the biggest issue?
You may recall that in recent weeks, fuel prices in the US hit record highs, reaching $4.50 per gallon for gasoline and $6.50 for diesel. This is directly linked to the conflict with Iran. Since the US intensified military operations targeting Iranian oil facilities and the Strait of Hormuz, Brent Crude prices in the international market have surged to $106.14 per barrel, and WTI has risen to $93.55 per barrel.
For the average American visiting the gas station daily, it feels as though the cost of the war is coming directly out of their own pockets. This is why Trump has had to explain that this inflation is temporary. He argues that once Iran yields, the oil market will open up, potentially bringing prices down to around $2—a figure he had promised during his election campaign.
Will there be more bombing before the midterm elections?
When a journalist asked him the toughest question—whether there might be further attacks on Iran before the midterm elections scheduled for November... Trump did not explicitly rule this out.
He stated twice, "I don't want to say that. I don't want to say that. I mean, it's possible, but I just don't want to say that."
In other words—I do not want to say this, but it is possible.
Two interpretations are being drawn from this statement. First, Trump wants to maintain pressure on Iran to force it to yield on the nuclear deal. Second, he wants to demonstrate to his voters that he is not a weak president who would hold back from war out of fear of the election.
Trump had previously stated at the United Nations that he would not base his decisions regarding Iran on election considerations.
**Claims of Iran's economic devastation**
Trump made another significant claim during the interview. He stated that the US is winning this conflict on two fronts—militarily and economically.
He said, "I think both. I think we'll win it both ways. We've already won it really from a military standpoint. But that doesn't mean we've stopped that."
Regarding the economic front, he remarked, "They have no economy. If you look at their economy, it's gone."
According to Trump, inflation in Iran has reached 300%, with some reports citing figures as high as 318%. Iran's currency has plummeted, and both its military and economy are "shot." The White House refers to this strategy as "Operation Economic Outcast."
**Iran's response: Ready for a 'Doomsday War'**
Meanwhile, Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi stated in an interview with NBC News' *Meet the Press* that Tehran is prepared for a new US attack. He described it as a "Doomsday War."
Araghchi said, "We care about our national interests. At the same time, we stand ready for diplomacy. It is up to President Trump to choose." Meanwhile, Iran is still awaiting a response from the US regarding its proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Iran wants the oil route opened to provide relief to its economy, whereas the US insists that the nuclear weapons issue be resolved first.
Trump has clearly stated that the key to this entire conflict is simple: "Iran will not have a nuclear weapon." Iran will not be allowed to acquire nuclear weapons.
What are American voters thinking?
The question now is whether American voters will trust Trump on this matter. A Reuters/Ipsos poll revealed that only 17% of people believe Trump is handling inflation effectively; even 51% of Republican voters are dissatisfied with his policy on inflation.
If Trump manages to end the conflict quickly and bring down oil prices, it would mark his greatest victory ahead of the midterms. Voters would forget everything else the moment they saw a $3-per-gallon price tag at the gas station. However, if the conflict drags on and oil prices surge to $110–$120, this very issue could lead to the Republican Party's defeat.
Therefore, Trump's statement is not aimed solely at Iran; it is also directed at voters in Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Michigan—people who, while filling up their cars every morning, wonder when the war will finally end.
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